It’s quite simple to calculate the expected value in roulette because most bets in roulette have the same expected value. Plus, the game of roulette is quite straightforward. For example, you place a bet, the wheel is spun, and you either lose or win depending on where the ball lands.
For many bets in roulette, when you are calculating the expected value (EV), it is simple. However, it can become difficult in-game where you don’t have readily available information. These games include blackjack and poker. It would be best if you estimated to calculate the expected value.
You need to know four things if you want to calculate the expected value, namely: The amount you will win, the probability of your bet winning, the probability of your bet losing, and the amount you will lose.
For example, suppose you are flipping a coin with your friends, but the payouts are not divided equally. Suppose you place a bet of $10 while your friend places a bet of $11. So, what do you think your expected value is?
We already know that you have a 50% chance of winning, and when that happens, you will take home $11. So, we can multiply those two figures and come up with a result of 5,50%. But we also know that you have a 50% chance of losing, and you will lose $10 every time you lose. So, $10 multiplied by five is AU$5.
Once we have those two figures, we can subtract the average win from the average loss. The result will be a $0,50 win on each flip that you win. You need to keep in mind that this calculation may differ if there are different amounts that you need to keep track of.
Calculating Roulette Bet Probability
Suppose you are struggling to calculate the probability of the bets on American and European roulette. Plus, you will get to see what the payout is.
European Roulette Expected Value
Calculating the European roulette expected value is straightforward because almost all the bets have the same house edge. For example, suppose you place a bet on a single number. This means that your bet has a 37:1 (36 numbers + the single zero) chance of winning. So, it means you have a 2,70% chance of winning.
However, the odds of losing on a single spin are 97,30% or 36/37. In many cases, the casino will earn its advantage from zero. The expected value is the same for every wager that you place.
American Roulette Expected Value
The American roulette expected value is higher for the casino than other roulette variations. The payouts are the same, but there is an extra number that increases the house edge. As you know, the American roulette wheel has two zeros instead of one.
Admittedly, you won’t find a lot of Australian casinos online offering the American roulette version. This is because not many players choose American roulette.
Suppose you bet on a single number while playing American roulette, the payout will be the same, but the odds of winning will be lower because your odds will be out of 38 numbers. Plus, now you will lose 37 out 38 times. When you calculate the value you expect, you will find that the house edge is 5,3%. You can see that the American house edge is higher than the European roulette.
As a player, you may think that both games have a negative expected value, however, European roulette is the better of the two.